THE OSCARS: Predictions

Here is the hard truth about Oscar predictions. For the most part, you are not going to win the pot by making inspired choices in the major categories. With a couple of notable exceptions, those are all pretty much sewn up already. So, don't be bold. Play it safe when you the know the general consensus is going in a particular direction. Just because you really loved Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS does not mean there is a genuine chance she will take the award tonight. Sentiment, at least when it comes to Oscar polls, is for losers.

Now, where you need to shine is in the smaller categories. Often times, nobody has even seen the nominees so with a little help from yours truly, perhaps we can get that money in your pocket by the time they call THE ARTIST as Best Picture. If we do win though, I expect 10% off the top.

(Click on any highlighted title for the original Black Sheep review.)

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: THE ARTIST
Could Win: THE HELP, HUGO

Of the bunch, THE ARTIST is the most universally loved. It may not be the Best Picture amongst the nominees but it has less detractors than the rest and is truly a delight and deserving of the crown.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: George Clooney for THE DESCENDANTS
Should Win: Jean Dujardin for THE ARTIST
Could Win: Jean Dujardin

Hollywood is in love with THE ARTIST and Dujardin is certainly a charmer. That said, I believe that Clooney, the early favourite for this honour, will still triumph. He is Hollywood royalty, has never won in this category and was at his best in THE DESCENDANTS. This is the closest race of the night.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Viola Davis for THE HELP
Should Win: Viola Davis
Could Win: Meryl Streep for THE IRON LADY

Davis may have stumbled a little bit when she lost to Streep at the Golden Globes but even Streep seemed surprised by that. I believe the Academy will reward her tender performance in THE HELP but Streep is long overdue. What Streep has to do though is be her usual great self but in a better movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Could Win: No one ... maybe Max Von Sydow, but not really

Plummer has this one wrapped up and deservedly so. Von Sydow is his only competition and that's just because he's been around a lot longer than the other nominees.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Octavia Spender for THE HELP
Should Win: Octavia Spencer
Could Win: Again, not really anyone, maybe Melissa McCarthy

Spencer has won every major award thrown at her. I do not expect her to miss out here. Chastain could have been a bigger threat if she was nominated for another movie.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Could Win: Martin Scorsese for HUGO

Hazanavicius is the clear front runner here. He also took the Director's Guild Award and the Academy  tends to follow suit. Scorsese has a surprising amount of support for HUGO but he just won not too long ago, and for a much better film.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Should Win: A SEPARATION
Could Win: THE ARTIST

I think this is Woody's to lose. The Academy will want to recognize the success of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS somehow and this is the easiest way to do that. It isn't fully undeserving but he has done better, in my opinion. A sweep for THE ARTIST could derail this though.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: THE DESCENDANTS
Should Win: THE DESCENDANTS
Could Win: MONEYBALL

I loved the screenplay for THE DESCENDANTS and much like the Original Screenplay category, the Academy will want to reward Alexander Payne somehow for his latest and this seems like the most apt way. Early favourite, MONEYBALL could still come back so beware of balls out of left field.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: A SEPARATION
Should Win: MONSIEUR LAZHAR
Could Win: IN DARKNESS

Being the only nominee with any love in any other category, Original Screenplay nominee, A SEPARATION, should continue its winning streak here. It's a fantastic film and I will be happy to see it win but I would love Canada to take it of course for MONSIEUR LAZHAR. Meanwhile, IN DARKNESS is a powerful underdog in this category.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: RANGO
Should Win: RANGO
Could Win: No competition

Admittedly, I have not seen the two smaller nominees in this category but who has? Aside from those, everything else in this category is too lame and populist to win. RANGO is a lock.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Will Win: A MORNING STROLL
Should Win: LA LUNA
Could Win: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE

I found A MORNING STROLL to be tight, concise and hilarious. I believe its commentary of the deterioration of society and courtesy will appeal to the Academy. That being said, the one about the flying books and how reading is sadly dying might take it. I hope it doesn't.

EDITING

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: HUGO

As THE ARTIST is poised for Best Picture, this category usually follows suit. That being said, HUGO is a much showier film and could easily triumph here. I am still betting on THE ARTIST though.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: THE TREE OF LIFE
Should Win: THE TREE OF LIFE
Could Win: HUGO, THE ARTIST

The one thing everyone can agree on when it comes to THE TREE OF LIFE is that it is gorgeous and breathtakingly so. It will not win anywhere else but there is nothing right with the world if it doesn't win here.

ART DIRECTION

Will Win: HUGO
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: THE ARTIST

HUGO is the most nominated film this year and this is because it excels in the technical categories. It is a lushly elaborate production and I think it has this category in the bag.

COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: JANE EYRE
Could Win: W.E.

THE ARTIST is simple elegant and perfectly period so this category should get swept up with its momentum. Madonna's W.E. did take honours with the costume designers themselves though so she could be trouble.

MAKEUP

Will Win: THE IRON LADY
Should Win: THE IRON LADY
Could Win: ALBERT NOBBS

At the end of the day, making Streep look old should win out over making Close look like a man. This is primarily because Streep looks more genuinely old than Close looks genuinely like a man.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: THE ARTIST
Could Win: HUGO

You try scoring a silent film! I'm pretty sure the Academy will recognize this undertaking unless HUGO seems to be gaining the favour of the night.

ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: THE MUPPETS
Should Win: THE MUPPETS
Could Win: RIO

As there are only two nominees here (again, lame.), it is entirely possible RIO could take it over THE MUPPETS. Who else could? It won't though.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: THE RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Should Win: THE RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Could Win: HUGO

While no one could agree as to whether Andy Serkis deserved an Oscar nod for his role as Cesar the ape, everyone could agree he looked damn real.

SOUND MIXING and SOUND EDITING

Will Win: HUGO
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

I lopped these two categories together because I just feel HUGO will take them both anyway. The film may not have the overall support but it does have the technical support for sure.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
Should Win: Cannot say
Could Win: PINA

I love documentaries but the one's I see never seem to be nominated. I have seen and loved PINA and Wim Wender's 3D dance film has a good chance at an upset but PARADISE LOST 3, about the West Memphis Three convicts, is certainly the most buzzed about.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: Cant's say
Should Win: Can't say
Could Win: Can't say

Sorry, I have not seen nor do I know anything about these titles. I cannot know everything! I'm going with what the generally accepted industry odds are here: SAVING FACE

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: THE SHORE
Should Win: TUBA ATLANTIC
Could Win: PENTECOST

Of the five, THE SHORE, was the least interesting to me but it is the only one with a name director and actor. That should give it the edge.

That's all of them! For those of you throwing a party, don't forget to get people to guess what time the Oscars will end on their ballot.  It is the best way to break a tie.

Best of luck to all of you and enjoy the show!

The 84th Annual Academy Awards

The nominations are finally out! The Academy went with nine Best Picture nominees. I went with eight in my predictions and all eight of those made the list. How could I have known EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE would snag a nod in the top category? And what? A tenth film would have really been that bad? Round it out, people!

First of all, I was 82% right with my predictions. My worst showing came from the Original Screenplay category. MARGIN CALL? Who knew? There are some mistakes I'm quite pleased about. The first is Terrence Malick for Best Director for THE TREE OF LIFE, which also made its way into the Best Picture race when so many people had written it off. The new Best Picture voting system favours films that have passionate followings and that definitely applies to this polarizing picture.

Other happy surprises this morning include Gary Oldman's Best Actor nomination for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, which also managed a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination; Melissa McCarthy for Best Supporting Actress in BRIDESMAIDS, which also scored a Best Original Screenplay nod; and Max von Sydow for Best Supporting Actor in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. All three names were tossed around but were never sure things and I'm happy to see them amongst this list.

Unacceptable oversights on the Academy's part include Michael Fassbender for Best Actor in SHAME. This snub is reason enough for me to consider not watching the show. Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN was also overlooked. I never really thought she could make it in such a competitive year but Elizabeth Olsen was incredible in MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE. 50/50 missed on the Best Original Screenplay category too. And Albert Brooks was overlooked for his delicious turn in DRIVE. Oh, and what about PROJECT NIM for Documentary Feature or the Golden Globe winner for Best Animated Feature, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN?! And to top it off, all of these incredible films were ignored completely in all the other categories (except for DRIVE, which scored a Sound Editing, and TINTIN, which scored an Original Score nod).

Oh, and did anyone notice that THE HELP did not score a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination? I guess that Best Picture win is looking a little less likely.

Here is the full list of nominees for the 84th annual Academy Awards. The winners will be announced on February 26, 2012.

(Scroll over any film title for the original Black Sheep review.)

BEST PICTURE

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Demian Bichir in A BETTER LIFE
George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Gary Oldman in TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis in THE HELP
Rooney Mara in THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY
Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Brannagh in MY WEEK WITH MARIYLN
Jonah Hill in MONEYBALL
Nick Nolte in WARRIOR
Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS
Max von Sydow in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy in BRIDESMAIDS
Janet McTeer in ALBERT NOBBS
Octavia Spencer in THE HELP

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

A CAT IN PARIS
CHICO AND RITA
KUNG FU PANDA 2
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

ART DIRECTION

THE ARTIST
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
HUGO
WAR HORSE

COSTUME DESIGN

ANONYMOUS
THE ARTIST
HUGO
JANE EYRE
W.E.

DIRECTING

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE TREE OF LIFE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

HELL AND BACK AGAIN
IF A TREE FALLS: A STORY OF THE EARTH LIBERATION FRONT
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
PINA
UNDEFEATED

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

THE BARBER OF BIRMINGHAM: FOOT SOLDIER OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT
GOD IS THE BIGGER ELVIS
INCIDENT IN NEW BAGHDAD
SAVING FACE
THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM

FILM EDITING

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

BULLHEAD (Belgium)
MONSIEUR LAZHAR (Canada)
A SEPARATION (Iran)
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
IN DARKNESS (Poland)

MAKEUP

ALBERT NOBBS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
THE IRON LADY

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
THE ARTIST
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
WAR HORSE

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

MAN OR MUPPET from THE MUPPETS
REAL IN RIO from RIO

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

DIMANCHE/SUNDAY
THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE
LA LUNA
A MORNING STROLL
WILD LIFE

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

PENTECOST
RAJU
THE SHORE
TIME FREAK
TUBA ATLANTIC

SOUND EDITING

DRIVE
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE

SOUND MIXING

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
HUGO
REAL STEAL
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

THE DESCENDANTS
HUGO
THE IDES OF MARCH
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
MARGIN CALL
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
A SEPARATION

Black Sheep predicts the 2012 Academy Awards

It's a shame the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to change the Best Picture rules this year. Now, anywhere between five and ten films will be nominated for the field's most prestigious honour in a year that could have easily seen ten very deserving candidates fill those slots. Instead, each film must garner 5% of the first place vote in the Academy's intricate and complicated system to earn a slot in the Top 10. If only six films manage it, then so be it, there are only six nominees this year. At least they would know that the films nominated have passionate followings.

I predict eight films will be nominated for Best Picture tomorrow. A secret part of me really wants to say nine because I would love to see BRIDESMAIDS sneak in there too. I think it has a pretty good shot but I'm playing it conservatively. This way if I'm wrong, well I'll be happy to be it.

The following are my predictions in the eight major Oscar categories. The nominees will be announced tomorrow at 8:30 AM, my time. (That's PST, in case you don't know where I live.)

(Click on any title to read the original Black Sheep review)

BEST PICTURE

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Alexander Payne for THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorsese for HUGO
Steven Spielberg for WAR HORSE

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Michael Fassbender in SHAME
Gary Oldman in TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis in THE HELP
Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY
Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Brannagh in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Albert Brooks in DRIVE
Nick Nolte in WARRIOR
Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS
Max von Sydow in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy in BRIDESMAIDS
Janet McTeer in ALBERT NOBBS
Octavia Spencer in THE HELP

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50
THE ARTIST
BEGINNERS
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

Check back tomorrow for the full list of nominees and to see how I did. I've made a few risky choices so my fingers are crossed. Also, the term "risky" is relative in this scenario as we are in fact talking about Oscar predictions.

HUGO

Written by John Logan

Directed by Martin Scorsese

Starring Ben Kingsley, Sasha Baron Cohen, Chloe Grace Moretz and Asa Butterfield

Isabelle: We could get into trouble.

Hugo: That’s how you know it’s an adventure.

Before any image even appears on screen, master filmmaker, Martin Scorsese, sets his scene with the sounds of his central character, Hugo Cabret’s life. Clocks are ticking, gears are clicking and trains are passing. These are the sounds one knows well when one lives behind the faces of clocks in a grand Parisian railway station. Once Scorsese shows us the images to match his intriguing soundscape, there is no escape. You are instantly taken on a 3-Dimensional journey that floats high above the snow-filled Paris sky and swoops seamlessly into the busy station. The magical ride that is Scorsese’s HUGO has begun and you won’t want to get off.

As Hugo, played by the talented young actor, Asa Butterfield, darts in and around clock gears and busy crowds, it is immediately clear that HUGO features some of the best, if not the best, 3D work to emerge from its current renaissance. In the hands of a skilled and dynamic filmmaker like Scorsese, the levels of depth added to the screen are dazzling. It certainly helps that Hugo’s journey, based on the Brian Selznick picture book, and the setting in which it takes place, are so rich and colorful to begin with. The train station where Hugo lives is populated not only with travelers but quirky, if not somewhat cliched, characters, and his unintentional interaction with them leads him on an adventure he hopes will heal his tormented past. It isn’t long before Hugo soon learns that he’s not the only one whose past haunts him.

While Scorsese’s intuition as a filmmaker lends itself incredibly well to the 3D format, his ability to tell a focused story is somewhat lacking here. Famous for hard hitting gangster films and tortured characters, his first foray into family filmmaking is certainly exciting but somewhat misguided. At times, it isn’t clear whose story he is actually telling. Is HUGO about a boy, orphaned after the recent loss of his father (Jude Law), struggling to find a way to move on, or is it a love letter to the great film masters of the past? Scorsese plays homage to film history throughout HUGO and, in doing so, he accomplishes two things. For one, he honours his influences with great style while bravely bringing film itself forward with his own commendable technique. The unfortunate offshoot though is that he seems to distract himself from the story at hand with his own visual prowess.